Article

 

Agriculture in Post-transition CEECs: Reconstruction or Deconstruction? (p.11-35)

by

Evangelos Nikolaidis, University of Crete

Keywords : structural change, Chenery hypothesis, transition economies, agriculture

JEL classification : O13, P20, Q10

Abstract

In the CEECs, the share of agriculture in GDP declined during the early years of transition to a level that characterizes countries with a higher level of economic development. This was accompanied by a significant and prolonged deterioration of key agricultural indicators. The crisis in the agricultural sector, which has lasted for almost two decades, reveals structural weaknesses that can hardly fall under the label of transformational recession. Accordingly, it has led to restructuring without the expected developmental content, and reflects strong elements of deconstruction, which at the end resembles a quasi-development process.

 

 

Technical Efficiency and Macroeconomic Determinants for the Greek Power Industry before liberalization: A Stochastic Frontier Approach (p.37-53)

by

Athena Belegri-Roboli, National Technical University of Athens

Panayotis G. Michaelides, National Technical University of Athens

Keywords : power Industry, technical efficiency determinants, Greece

JEL classification : L94

Abstract

The derivation of efficiency estimates for the Power Industry is significant for policy design. This paper analyzes technical efficiency and its macroeconomic determinants for the case of the Greek Public Power Industry before liberalization. Technical efficiency is estimated by means of stochastic frontier analysis (S.F.A.) and its macroeconomic determinants are also evaluated. The industry’s technical efficiency ranged between 83% and 100% with an average equal to 94% and achieving its maximum performance in 1974 and 1992. Important determinants of technical efficiency are the scale of operation and the country’s incorporation in the wider European Union (E.U.) area.

 

 

How useful is the LAVE method? (p.55-82)

by

Aleša Lotrič Dolinar, University of Ljubljana

Keywords : LAVE, GARCH, ARIMA, volatility, emerging markets, stock exchange index

JEL classification : C22, C53

Abstract

We show that the findings of Mercurio and Spokoiny (2004) concerning their alternative LAVE approach for volatility estimation are not necessarily true for another type of volatile time series, as far as comparison to the usual GARCH(1,1) process is concerned. However, we propose another use of LAVE for the purpose of level, not volatility, modeling – and in our case it turns out to be successful.

 

 

Evaluation of the Diachronic Performance of the OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts for Greece (p.83-101)

by

Dikaios Tserkezos, Greek Econometric Institute, University of Crete

Keywords : OECD forecasts accuracy, Greek economy, Diachronic Adjustment Speed, Distributed Lags model, Monte Carlo experiments

JEL classification : E17, E37, F17, F47

Abstract

A variety of standard forecasting accuracy criteria and one suggestion are applied to evaluate the OECD's macroeconomic forecasts for Greece for the aggregate demand and output, the GDP implicit price deflator, the investment, the imports and the exports of goods and services. Every year and half-year the OECD provides projections for these variables published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Because these projections are used extensively by governmental and nongovernmental organizations, it is useful to examine their accuracy. Among some ‘traditional’ forecasting performance criteria another forecasting criterion is suggested in order to take into account the diachronic adjustment process between the forecasts supplied by OECD and the actual data the last 27 years. According to our results, irrespective of how accurate are the OECD’s forecasts, there is certainly much room for further improvement. As predictors of direction the OECD's six-month ahead forecasts should be considered valuable; this cannot be said for forecasts which look ahead a year and 18 months.