Article

 

Evaluation of the Diachronic Performance of the OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts for Greece (p.83-101)

by

Dikaios Tserkezos, Greek Econometric Institute, University of Crete

Keywords : OECD forecasts accuracy, Greek economy, Diachronic Adjustment Speed, Distributed Lags model, Monte Carlo experiments

JEL classification : E17, E37, F17, F47

Abstract

A variety of standard forecasting accuracy criteria and one suggestion are applied to evaluate the OECD's macroeconomic forecasts for Greece for the aggregate demand and output, the GDP implicit price deflator, the investment, the imports and the exports of goods and services. Every year and half-year the OECD provides projections for these variables published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Because these projections are used extensively by governmental and nongovernmental organizations, it is useful to examine their accuracy. Among some ‘traditional’ forecasting performance criteria another forecasting criterion is suggested in order to take into account the diachronic adjustment process between the forecasts supplied by OECD and the actual data the last 27 years. According to our results, irrespective of how accurate are the OECD’s forecasts, there is certainly much room for further improvement. As predictors of direction the OECD's six-month ahead forecasts should be considered valuable; this cannot be said for forecasts which look ahead a year and 18 months.