Article

 

Changes in fuel oil prices in Turkey: An estimation of the inflation effect using VAR analysis (p.11-21)

by

Birol Akgûl, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey

Tuncay Çelik, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey

Keywords : Oil prices, inflation, Turkish economy, time series, Error Correction Model

JEL classification : C22, E31, Q43

Abstract

In the past, the Turkish economy went through a long period of hyperinflation. In recent years, inflation has fallen to 8-10% due to the government’s “price stability” policy. In the last decade the gradual rise in global crude oil prices has increased expectations of a possible inflationary effect in Turkey which is an oil importer. In this study, the relationship between the consumer price index and the fuel oil price index in Turkey was examined in the time interval monthly data of 2005-2010 using the Vector Error Correction Model. Study results revealed that a 1% increase in fuel oil prices caused the consumer price index to rise by 1.26% with an approximate one year lag. Moreover, the change in fuel oil prices was found to be the one-way Granger cause for changes in the consumer price index.

 

 

Restructuring a fiscal policy encourages economic growth - a case of selected African countries (p.23-39)

by

Ghirmai T. Kefela, DTAG Inc., USA

Ravinder Rena, Polytechnic School of Namibia, Namibia

Keywords : Fiscal adjustment, Tax policies, Domestic and foreign debt, Economic growth

JEL classification : E60, E62, H2, H62

Abstract

Fiscal governance is strong only when governments can deliver their fiscal policy in a sustainable way, and are efficiently applied to the provision of public goods and services. This paper introduces the topics of fiscal policy and its potential effects on economic activity. The paper delves the economic roles and potential methods of domestic and foreign debt financing. It focuses on the methodology of fiscal policy for calling and assessing the impacts of alternative tax policies, and debt management requirements. The paper also covers the basic theory, policy and practice of public finance including decentralization and intergovernmental fiscal relations in developing and transitional economies of Africa.

 

 

Impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market in Bulgaria and policy implications (p.41-53)

by

Yu Hsing, Southeastern Louisiana University

Keywords : Stock market index, Government deficit, Money supply, Interest rates, Exchange rates, World stock market

JEL classification : E44, E52, E62, G15

Abstract

Applying the GARCH model, this paper finds that the Bulgarian stock market index is positively associated with real GDP, the M2/GDP ratio and the U.S. stock market index and is negatively influenced by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the BGN/USD exchange rate, the expected inflation rate and the euro area government bond yield. Hence, to promote a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue or maintain economic growth, fiscal discipline, moderate increase in the money supply, currency appreciation, and a relatively low interest rate or expected inflation rate.

 

 

Privatization in five duopoly regimes: A numerical example (p.55-63)

by

Kazuhiro Ohnishi, Osaka University & Institute for Basic Economic Science

Keywords : Privatization, State-owned firm, Capitalist firm, Labor-managed firm

JEL classification : C72, D21, H42, L33

Abstract

In recent years, the theoretical analysis of privatization has been studied by many economists. However, they have not considered labor-managed firms. Therefore, this paper examines the following five duopoly regimes: state-owned and capitalist firms, capitalist firms, state-owned and labor-managed firms, labor-managed firms, and capitalist and labor-managed firms. The paper then compares the equilibrium outcomes of the five market regimes.

 

 

Is per capita real GDP stationary? Non-linear panel unit-root tests from Eastern-European countries (p.65-74)

by

Chi-Wei Su, Tamkang University,Taiwan (R.O.C.)

Hsu-Ling Chang, Lin Tung University, Taiwan (R.O.C.)

Keywords : Non-linear panel unit-root test, Per capita real GDP

JEL classification : O1, O4

Abstract

In this paper, we apply non-linear panel unit-root test to assess the non-stationary properties of the per capita real GDP for seven Eastern-European Countries. We find that non-linear panel unit-root test has higher power than linear method suggested by Breuer et al. (2001) if the true data generating process of exchange rate is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We investigate the stationary of per capita real GDP from the panel non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that real output is well characterized by a non-linear mean reverting process, namely Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta and Poland. These results have important policy implications for Eastern-European countries.

 

 

Leading a postmodern African organisation: Towards a model of prospective commitment (p.75-92)

by

Uzoechi Nwagbara, University of Wales, UK

Keywords : African management, Organisational leadership, Postmodernism, Prospective commitment

JEL classification : O55

Abstract

Africa’s adoption of Western management and leadership practices has impacted adversely on her capacity to develop in the global marketplace. As this paper shall argue, an African oriented management and leadership paradigms couched in postmodernism will facilitate her efforts towards continental bliss. Postmodernism is a reaction against modernity that universalises Western (organisational) models by asserting one-dimensional approach to apprehending reality. Leading a postmodernist African organisation entails a deconstruction of Western schema through opening up multiplicities. The envisioned new African organisational model is one of these multiplicities. Also, Africa’s (organisational) leadership in post-modern era is a correlate of prospective commitment. Prospective commitment translates into envisioning future progress of African business as well as re-imagining African-centred organisational models for competitive edge. This is crucial for Africa to rediscover its cultural identity. This is also critical for transcending the trammels of Western oriented management methods by evolving Africa’s indigenous management practices that are couched in Ubuntu, a collectivist leadership model premised on shared vision and experience. This is important for Africa’s renaissance as well as a useful management tool for circumventing imperialist hangover and impositions, which are standing in the way of her organisational growth and development.